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6/25/2019 13:06pm
Fly Intel: What to watch in Micron's earnings report

Micron (MU) is scheduled to report results of its fiscal third quarter after the market close on June 25, with a conference call scheduled for 4:30 pm ET. What to watch for:

1. Q3 EPS CONSENSUS LOWER: Along with its last report, Micron guided for Q3 earnings per share of 85c, plus or minus 10c, on revenue of $4.8B, plus or minus $200M. At the time, analysts were expecting the company to report Q3 EPS of $1.23 on revenue of $5.33B, but those figures have since fallen to 83c and $4.77B, respectively. The company added on its quarterly conference call at the time that it was idling DRAM capacity.

2. MIZUHO CUTS PRICE TARGET: On Monday, Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh said he anticipated weak May quarter results and August quarter guidance from Micron given the Huawei ban, weaker handset demand, an uncertain rebound in hyperscale demand and DRAM and NAND prices trending below prior expectations. While the analyst maintained a Buy rating on the shares, Rakesh cut his estimates and lowered his price target on the stock to $44 from $47.

3. OTHER ESTIMATE/PT CUTS: Prior to the Mizuho price target cut, several analysts last week lowered their price targets or estimates on Micron. Baird's Tristan Gerra lowered his price target to $28 from $32, saying that DRAM and NAND inventories have deteriorated quarter-over-quarter and are now about twice the normal levels in the supply chain. The analyst added that production cuts are "more muted" than he anticipated, according to his channel checks. Gerra said he continues to expect the current downturn to extend "well into" 2020, and as a result he cut his 2019 EPS estimate for Micron to $5.76 from $6.18 and 2020 estimate to $1.00 from $3.00.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur lowered his estimates for Micron, saying his new estimates reflect the component bans to Huawei, a 13% customer decline in the first half of fiscal 2019, worse than anticipated DRAM pricing, and expectations of a slower recovery in the back half of this year and into next year on macro uncertain and trade tension. Sur said he believes blended DRAM pricing in the March, April and May time frame declined by about 30% versus his previously estimated 25% decline. The analyst now expects Micron's fiscal Q3 revenue and earnings to be below the low-end of the prior guided range and he estimates Q4 earnings per share troughing at around 15c-25c. He also cut his price target on the stock to $50 from $64.

In addition, Cleveland Research reduced its May quarter assumptions for the company to below the mid-point of revenue and EPS guidance given that its checks indicate that the timing of a DRAM market turn is pushed out to the August quarter of 2020. The firm also increased their conviction that NAND will continue to be oversupplied in the second half of this fiscal year.

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